98W REMAINS OVER WEST OF BRUNEI, RAIN CONTINUES

• No tropical cyclone spotted atleast for the next 24hrs.
• Moisture over the country expected to bring enhance rainfall over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
• Enhance MJO developing over NE of Australia.
• 98W invest over ENE of Singapore.
• Overall, Rainfall still expected over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao probably within the next 3 days.

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DRY AIR EXPANDED BUT ENHANCED DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT MAY TRIGGER 2 MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL

• Enhanced dry air expanded further over southern china but slowly moving towards Philippines.
• Enhanced deep moisture remains over much of the Philippines.
• TPW indicates moisture remains enhance over the country.
• Overall, rainfall will remain for at least 2 more days

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2010-2011 LA-NINA STRONGER SINCE 1998-2000

1950-1975

1976-2001

2002-present

2010-11 La-Niña keeps getting stronger and possible become strongest since 1988-89 La Niña episodes. Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) seen above, August-October time shows a -1.3˚C SST anomalies, almost double of 2007-08 (-0.7˚C) and even lower of 0.3˚C at 1998-99 (-1.0). As La-Niña matures during winter season, continues drop of ONI expected and possible to duplicate or even stronger compared to 1988-89 episode.

Nearly all models indicate that La Niña (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies -0.5˚C or less) will persist at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011, however, possible strengthening is expected till Northern hemisphere winter.

For more info just visit El-nino/la nina page

Figures Source: NOAA

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