WETTER DECEMBER POSSIBLE AS LA-NINA GETTING STRONGER; WETTER THAN NORMAL LIKELY UP TO NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING

3 different condition of SST along western pacific (2007, 2009-2010). Warmer SST condition remains over east of Mindanao

850 mb shows above climatological condition an indication that vorticity continuously developing.

Depth 26C shows warmer and deeper themocline over western pacific (2007, 2009-2010)

Equatorial thermocline shows colder water remained declining over eastern Pacific, whereas, warmer are observe along most of Philippines mostly over Eastern Mindanao

Tropical cyclone formation probabilities remain active based on climatological condition

This figure shows high and deeper convective formation over Philippines resulted to warm SST and lower shear

For graphical understanding

Sea height anomalies remains deeper and warmer (2007, 2009-2010). Warming are much higher compared to last La-nina (2007)

Recent SST and condition of La-nina

Vertical instability remain almost below climatological rate however, chances are high for becoming above climatological rate

Shear almost normal but showing some below climatological rate

High moisture content are available as it remains below climatological rate (rising means drier condition)

lower SST anomalies remains over Eastern Equatorial pacific

• Overall, based on above figures, conditions favors for above to high rainfall conditions expected over Eastern section of the country (mostly Mindanao and Visayas) while out of season rainfall expected over the rest including Metro manila.
• Deep and strong convective formations are likely as abundant moisture over all level of atmosphere persist due to warmer SST and deeper high thermocline east of Philippines observe.
• Wetter December are likely including some out of season tropical disturbances including tropical cyclones.
• La-nina remains strong and even getting stronger as evidence of stronger easterly wind almost most of Pacific.

SOURCE:

monsoon

El-nino/la-nina

indian ocean dipole

madden julian oscillation

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TCFA NOW AT 99W INVEST AS 91W LIKELY TO FOLLOW; HURRICANE FRANK; HURRICANE DANIELLE; STORM EARL; 97L; 90W; 98W

VORTICITY IMAGERY OF 4 WEATHER DISTURBANCES

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W INVEST

AUGUST 27 2010 1017A (0217UTC)

CATEGORY	VALUE
STAGE	0 OF 15
DESCRIPTION	WARNING
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)	15	GUSTINESS	20
(kph)	28	GUSTINESS	37
CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb)	1010
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS (kt)	22	MSLP (mb)	1006.0
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT) (kt)	0	MSLP (mb)	0
CENTRAL REGION TEMP:	-0°C	DESCRIPTION	N/A
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP:	-0°C	RAINRATE (IN mm/hr)	+25
FORECAST (NEXT 12HRS)	15kt	STAGE:	0

POSITION: 18.1N, 122.4E/COAST OF NORTHERN CAGAYAN

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W INVEST AUGUST 27 2010 1026A (0226UTC)

CATEGORY	VALUE
STAGE	0 OF 15
DESCRIPTION	WARNING
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)	15	GUSTINESS	20
(kph)	28	GUSTINESS	37
CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb)	1010
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS (kt)	N/A	MSLP (mb)	N/A
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT) (kt)	0	MSLP (mb)	0
CENTRAL REGION TEMP:	-0°C	DESCRIPTION	NONE
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP:	-0°C	RAINRATE (IN mm/hr)	+35
FORECAST (NEXT 12HRS)	20 kt	STAGE:	1

POSITION: 15.4N, 117.2E/311KM W OF IBA, ZAMBALES

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W INVEST AUGUST 27 2010 1030A (0230UTC)

CATEGORY	VALUE
STAGE	0 OF 15
DESCRIPTION	WARNING
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)	15	GUSTINESS	20
(kph)	28	GUSTINESS	37
CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb)	1010
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS (kt)	15	MSLP (mb)	1010.3
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT) (kt)	0	MSLP (mb)	0
CENTRAL REGION TEMP:	-0°C	DESCRIPTION	N/A
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP:	-0°C	RAINRATE (IN mm/hr)	+25
FORECAST (NEXT 12HRS)	15kt	STAGE:	0

POSITION: 9.0N, 142.0E/775KM E OF PAR

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 99W/PRE-07W (JMA AND THAILAND: MINIMAL DEPRESSION) AUGUST 27 2010 1047A (0247UTC)

CATEGORY	VALUE
STAGE	1 OF 15
DESCRIPTION	TCFA
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)	20	GUSTINESS	25
(kph)	37	GUSTINESS	46
CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb)	1006
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS (kt)	21	MSLP (mb)	1006.7
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT) (kt)	34	MSLP (mb)	997.6
CENTRAL REGION TEMP:	19.31°C	DESCRIPTION	N/A
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP:	-06.53°C	RAINRATE (IN mm/hr)	+35
FORECAST (NEXT 12HRS)	25 kt	STAGE:	2

POSITION: 26.29N, 127.42E/OPEN PACIFIC

OTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM:

NORTH ATLANTIC

CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE DANIELLE

TROPICAL STORM EARL

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97L/PRE-08L

EATERN PACIFIC

CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE FRANK

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK