MEGI WEAKENS A BIT BUT THREATEN SOUTHERN CHINA; 95W LIKELY TO BECOME NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MEGI/15W[LOCAL: JUAN] OCTOBER 21 2010 1245A (1645UTC)

STAGE: 10 OF 15	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 3	INTENSITY (kt): MAX:110 GUST: 135	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 941
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 104.6	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 939.9	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): 9.69	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -67.07
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 111	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 934.9	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 100

POSITION: 18.74n, 117.36E/350KM W OF ILOCOS SUR (MWS: 204KPH-250KPH)
FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (19.22N, 117.36E/405KM W OF CALAYAN GRP)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TCFA 95W/PRE-16W OCTOBER 21 2010 0100A (1700UTC)

STAGE: 1	CATEGORY: TCFA	INTENSITY (kt): MAX: 20 GUST: 25	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1007
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 24	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1007.0	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): N/A	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): N/A
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 22	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1007.0	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 25

POSITION: 16.5N, 145.6E/1175KM E OF PAR

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W OCTOBER 21 2010 0102A (1702UTC)

STAGE: 0	CATEGORY: WARNING	INTENSITY (KT): MAX: 15 GUST: 20	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1010
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (KT): 25	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1007.3	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): N/A	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): N/A
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 20	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1008.65	RAINRATE (MM): +25	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS): 15

POSITION: 15.0N,163.1E/OPEN WESTERN PACIFIC




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