AURING SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SAMAR

Weak depression Auring (based on JMA) weakens slowly but remains at 20kts wind. As of 7p, it was centered at 12.5N, 127.5E or at approximately 250km east of Northern Samar with SLP of 1007.5mb and winds of 20kts. It is moving under the steering influence of High over China to the west slowly. The primary steering influence over Auring is a building High which cut as expected the frontal system to the North which allow Auring to directly move back to the west.

Auring is forecast to weakens as weakening upper divergence, colder and drier air entrap to its circulation. However, convection remain to be at level 3-5 meaning moderate to at times heavy rains expected at rate of 12mm/hr (see images below) as shear remain low and warm SST and moderate OHC are over the area.

Possible stormy weather expected over Samar tomorrow as its remnant expected to affect the area.

Colder air expected to affect Luzon and Northern Visayas with possible rains over Visayas and Northern Mindanao as weakening Aurings and possibly its remnant moves to the area.