IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 1P[04:30UTC] AUG 6, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW
(AS OF 1P[04:30UTC] AUG 6, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW
RAIN ANALYSIS OF MORAKOT
8-6-09
1P
CATEGORY 1 09W/MORAKOT (KIKO)
LOCATION: 23.1N, 128.0E (650KM E TAIWAN)
WINDSPEED: 80-95KT (148-176KPH [SLP CHART: 96KT/178KPH])
SLP: 946.4MB
MOVEMENT: WNW 9KT/17KPH
EYE TEMP: 6C AT 12.2KM
NEXT 12HRS: 95-100KT/176-185KPH 23.5N, 125.5E (430KM E TAIWAN)
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MORAKOT) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIONWRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 052137Z37 GHZ SSMI IMAGE INDICATES A MICROWAVE EYE DEVELOPING WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERYINDICATES WELL ESTABLISHED RADIAL OUTFLOW IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. CONFIDENCE IN POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD, IS FAIR. THE VAST 34-KNOT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM VARIES FROM 120 NM ON THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT TO 200 NM ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS IS VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM RODN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 36 KNOTS, 213 NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. WINDS ALSO VERIFY WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM TAIWAN DOTSTAR AIRCRAFTTY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. CONDITIONS FAVOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DUE TOFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DUAL OUFLOW CONDITIONS ENHANCEDBY THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEARENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 36, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILLALSO MILDLY WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE SLIGHTLYNORTHWESTWARD. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED AS THE FORECAST TAKES TY 09W OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN BY TAU 36 AND INTO MAIN-LAND CHINA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72. SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO NOGAPS TRACKING NORTHWARD WHILE UKMO TRACKS TY 09W RAPIDLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. WBAR AND COAMPS ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD AND GFS TAKES TY 09W ACROSS SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND INTO MAINLAND CHINA NEAR FUZHOU. THEREFORE, LACK OF AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFDN, JGSM, AND ECMWF
SEVERE ALERT 08W/GONI (JOLINA)
LOCATION: 22.1N, 111.4E (LANDFALL AT SOUTHERN CHINA)
WINDSPEED: 20-30KT (37-56KPH [SLP CHART: 35KT/65KPH])
SLP: 995.9MB
MOVEMENT: WSW 5KT/9KPH
EYE TEMP: 2C AT 12KM
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT BACK TO WATER
DISCUSSION BASED ON JTWC:
NONE
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
8-6-09
1P
CATEGORY 1 09W/MORAKOT (KIKO)
LOCATION: 23.1N, 128.0E (650KM E TAIWAN)
WINDSPEED: 80-95KT (148-176KPH [SLP CHART: 96KT/178KPH])
SLP: 946.4MB
MOVEMENT: WNW 9KT/17KPH
EYE TEMP: 6C AT 12.2KM
NEXT 12HRS: 95-100KT/176-185KPH 23.5N, 125.5E (430KM E TAIWAN)
DISCUSSION BASED ON JTWC:
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MORAKOT) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIONWRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 052137Z37 GHZ SSMI IMAGE INDICATES A MICROWAVE EYE DEVELOPING WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERYINDICATES WELL ESTABLISHED RADIAL OUTFLOW IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. CONFIDENCE IN POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD, IS FAIR. THE VAST 34-KNOT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM VARIES FROM 120 NM ON THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT TO 200 NM ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS IS VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM RODN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 36 KNOTS, 213 NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. WINDS ALSO VERIFY WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM TAIWAN DOTSTAR AIRCRAFTTY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. CONDITIONS FAVOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DUE TOFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DUAL OUFLOW CONDITIONS ENHANCEDBY THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEARENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 36, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILLALSO MILDLY WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE SLIGHTLYNORTHWESTWARD. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED AS THE FORECAST TAKES TY 09W OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN BY TAU 36 AND INTO MAIN-LAND CHINA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72. SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO NOGAPS TRACKING NORTHWARD WHILE UKMO TRACKS TY 09W RAPIDLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. WBAR AND COAMPS ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD AND GFS TAKES TY 09W ACROSS SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND INTO MAINLAND CHINA NEAR FUZHOU. THEREFORE, LACK OF AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFDN, JGSM, AND ECMWF
SEVERE ALERT 08W/GONI (JOLINA)
LOCATION: 22.1N, 111.4E (LANDFALL AT SOUTHERN CHINA)
WINDSPEED: 20-30KT (37-56KPH [SLP CHART: 35KT/65KPH])
SLP: 995.9MB
MOVEMENT: WSW 5KT/9KPH
EYE TEMP: 2C AT 12KM
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT BACK TO WATER
DISCUSSION BASED ON JTWC:
NONE
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
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