WELCOME TO TYPHOON AND WEATHER IMAGERY. THIS BLOG CONTAINS REAL TIME WEATHER, TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES AND IMAGERY, AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST. CONTENTS OF DROP DOWN MENU CAN BE FOUND AFTER PHILIPPINE IMAGERY BELOW (SCROLL DOWNWARD). THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR VISITING THIS SITE. YOU ARE FREE TO MAKE ANY COMMENT(S) OR FEEDBACK(S) ABOUT THIS BLOG.

ACTIVE LOW OR TROPICAL CYCLONES

CLICK IMAGERIES TO REDIRECT ON COMPLETE IMAGERIES AND INFORMATIONS (Imageries will be seen after Philippines imagery below)

THREE-W/DANTE

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION

LAS PINAS CITY REALTIME DATA (CREDITS: MANILA OBSERVATORY)

PRESSURE TEMPERATURE RAINFALL WINDSPEED SOLAR RADIATION

PHILIPPINES HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGERY (10 MINUTES UPDATE) AND RAINFALL MAP (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI DAYTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI 30MINUTES WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI HOURLY FUNKTOP LOOP IMAGERY (RAINFALL) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF THAILAND METEOROLOGICAL DEPT.) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
BACK TO THERMAL IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)

REAL TIME 3 HOURS UPDATED SURFACE WIND AND 3HRS RAIN. CLICK EARTH TO CHANGE VIEW. CLICK MAP TO KNOW VALUE/DATA
CREDIT: EARTH.NULLSCHOOL.NET

Error: Embedded data could not be displayed.

DOPPLER RADARs (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

TROPICAL CYCLONE NIDA WEAKENS; 97W LIKELY TO ABSORB NIDA'S REMNANT


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
DEC 3 2009

NIDA WIND ANALYSIS


97W WIND ANALYSIS

97W THERMAL IR IMAGERY

NIDA THERMAL IMAGERY

WESTERN PACIFIC IR IMAGERY


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (VINTA/26W)

MINIMAL DEPRESSION STAGE

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 25kt GUST: 35kt (46-65kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1004MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 34KT (63KPH) MSLP: 1000.8MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 26KT(48KPH) MSLP: 1003.2B
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: +10.9C (SHEAR)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: +4.4C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 15KT/19KPH

DISCUSSION:

TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AT 0600Z, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEARLY ONE DEGREE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF INCREASINGLY SHEARED CONVECTION. BY 1200Z CONVECTION HAD BEGUN TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE EXPOSED LLCC AS THE CONVECTIVE MASS ENLARGED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CONVECTION HAS LEFT THE LLCC MOSTLY OBSCURED AND INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AS WELL. THIS WEAKENING SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MAY BE MORE A CONSEQUENCE OF INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION RATHER THAN THE ACTUAL STORM MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS, A BLEND OF A 3.5 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) FROM PGTW AND A 3.0 FROM RJTD. ANALYSIS OF AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS THE WARM CORE HAS CONTRACTED WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC, AND IT HAS DROPPED SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET INTO THE MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERE

FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, BUT RATHER WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER OPEN WATER DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). VWS HAS ALREADY INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KNOTS OVER THE LLCC, HAD LEFT THE LLCC FULLY EXPOSED 6 TO 8 HOURS AGO, AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AS THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC, THE LLCC WILL TEND TO TRACK MORE WEST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF (NORTH)EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE CURRENT TRACK SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD TREND AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE PREVIOUS 6-HOUR MOTION.
B. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS VWS ELEVATES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. AT THIS TIME RECURVATURE STILL SEEMS LESS LIKELY BECAUSE THE LLCC HAS ALREADY DECOUPLED FROM ITS CONVECTION AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER, IF CONVECTION REBUILDS AND SUSTAINS NEAR THE CENTER (THOUGH UNLIKELY DUE TO VWS), THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BECOME MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL TRACK. AS FORECASTED THE STORM WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED WITHIN 36 HOURS.



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (PRE-28W)


SEVERE ALERT (6-12HRS FORMATION) STAGE
CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 20kt GUST: 25kt (37-46kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1007MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 27KT (50KPH) MSLP: 1004.8MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT(0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 0KT/0KPH



DISCUSSION:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 142.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030012Z AMSU IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WRAPPING WEAKLY INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 030007Z ASCAT PASS DID NOT COVER THE ENTIRE LLCC, HOWEVER IT HAD COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF, AND IT INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN ELONGATED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 021900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS


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