EL-NINO DEVELOPING OVER EAST EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AS WARMING CONTINUES

LATEST TEMPERATURE AND GRAPH
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SST ANOMALIES

SEA TEMPERATURE

Warming of east equatorial pacific indicates an upcoming El-nino phenomenon which likely to be felt end of the 2009 up to mid of 2010 (Northern hemisphere winter to spring) though the degree of strength still uncertain. Graphs shows some +1.0 anomalies over El-nino 3 which expanded over most of El-nino threshold. If this continues, a series of strong typhoons expected within july-september before a warmer but drier climate over holiday season which sets over December. Latest information regarding over El-nino will be release by 1st week of July.

97W INVEST STRUGGLE, LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN 3 DAYS

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 10A[01:30UTC] JUNE 29, 2009)
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VORTICES

UPPER DIVERGENCE

SHEAR
RAINRATE

PRESSURE

97W CONVECTION

97W WIND

95W WIND

95W CONVECTION


AS OF 10A

WARNING 97W INVEST

LOCATION: 7.3N, 132.1E (APPROXIMATELY 495KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN MINDANAO;
WINDSPEED: 10-15KT/19-28KPH;
SLP: 1009.5MB;
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY;
VORTICES: LOW;
EYE TEMP: 0.0C;
SHEAR: 7.5KT;
UPPER DIVERGENCE: GOOD AT 20KT;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: WARNING (10-15KT) AT APPROXIMATELY 300KM EAST OF MINDANAO

WARNING 95W INVEST

LOCATION: 29.2N, 162.9E (OPEN PACIFIC);
WINDSPEED: 10-15KT/19-28KPH;
SLP: 1011.7MB;
MOVEMENT: NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY;
VORTICES: MODERATE;
EYE TEMP: 2.0C; SHEAR: 35KT;
UPPER DIVERGENCE: NEGATIVE;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: EXTRATROPICAL LOW

97W Invest expected to remain as warning despite of good upper divergence and fair OHC and warm SST as weak pole ward and equatorial outflow and insufficient TPW evolve over the area. Meanwhile, 95W Invest expected to become an weak extra tropical cyclone as strong shear surrounds the area inhibits formation of deep convection.


COVERED (JUNE 27-28 18:00UTC) 1 DAY
40.00 mm ILIGAN/MINDANAO ISL 8.15 124.22
48.00 mm MALAYBALAY/MINDANAO 8.15 125.08

COVERED (JUNE 26-28 18:00UTC) 3 DAYS
NO 100MM ABOVE RAINFALL

COVERED (JUNE 22-28 18:00UTC) 7 DAYS
200.20 mm KALIBO/PANAY ISLAND 11.68 122.38
205.08 mm MAASIN/LEYTE ISLAND 10.13 124.83
205.08 mm ROXAS/PANAY ISLAND 11.58 122.75
209.96 mm ROMBLON/TABLAS ISL 12.58 122.27
209.96 mm TACLOBAN/LEYTE ISL 11.25 125.00
268.55 mm MAMBURAO/MINDORO IL 13.22 120.60
278.32 mm SAN JOSE/MINDORO IL 12.35 121.03

04W/NANGKA/FERIA INTENSIFIED HIT ROMBLON THREATHENS MINDORO AND SOUTHERN TAGALOG REGION

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 7A[21:30UTC] JUNE 24, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

TRACT

04W/NANGKA/FERIA WIND

04W/NANGKA/FERIA VORTICES

04W/NANGKA/FERIA UPPER DIVERGENCE

04W/NANGKA/FERIA STEERING WIND

04W/NANGKA/FERIA SHEAR

04W/NANGKA/FERIA RAIN ANALYSIS

04W/NANGKA/FERIA CONVECTION

AS OF 7A
STRONG STORM 04W/NANGKA/FERIA

LOCATION: 12.1N, 123.0E (APPROXIMATELY 55KM WEST OF MASBATE)
WINDSPEED: 45-55KT/83-102KPH
SLP: 998.8MB
MOVEMENT: NORTHWEST AT 8KT/15KPH
VORTICES: HIGH
EYE TEMP: 2.0C
SHEAR: 30KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: WEAK AT 10KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: SEVERE STORM (50-60KT) AT APPROXIMATELY 90KM SSW OF MARINDUQUE

04W/NANGKA/FERIA slowed down as High begins to weakens causing some competing influence over High and frontal system. It moves more WNW for the past 6hrs. Weakened upper divergence and intensifying shear expected to slow down its intensification.

COVERED (JUNE 22-23 15:00UTC) 1 DAY
35.00 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 13.42 121.18
42.00 mm CAGAYAN DE ORO 8.48 124.63
42.00 mm TAYABAS 14.03 121.58
47.00 mm DIPOLOG/MINDANAO IL 8.60 123.35
50.00 mm CATARMAN/SAMAR ISL 12.48 124.63
52.00 mm CATANDUANES RADAR 13.98 124.32
58.00 mm GUIUAN/SAMAR ISLAND 11.03 125.73
59.00 mm LUMBIA AIRPORT 8.43 124.28
60.00 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
63.00 mm BORONGAN/SAMAR ISL 11.62 125.43
66.00 mm OLONGAPO 14.80 120.27
68.00 mm ROMBLON/TABLAS ISL 12.58 122.27
73.00 mm BUTUAN/MINDANAO ISL 8.93 125.52
73.00 mm SAN FRANCISCO 13.37 122.52
78.00 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
78.00 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
84.00 mm CATBALOGAN/SAMAR IL 11.78 124.88
91.00 mm SURIGAO/MINDANAO IL 9.80 125.50
100.00 mm DUMAGUETE/NEGROS IL 9.30 123.30
104.00 mm ILOILO/PANAY ISLAND 10.70 122.57
106.00 mm MACATAN 12.37 123.62
115.00 mm TAGBILARAN/BOHOL IL 9.60 123.85
116.00 mm CALBAYOG/SAMAR ISL 12.07 124.55
121.00 mm KALIBO/PANAY ISLAND 11.68 122.38
126.00 mm MACTAN INTL(CIV/AF) 10.30 123.97
146.00 mm ROXAS/PANAY ISLAND 11.58 122.75
161.00 mm MAASIN/LEYTE ISLAND 10.13 124.83
164.00 mm BACOLOD/NEGROS ISL 10.65 122.93
181.00 mm TACLOBAN/LEYTE ISL 11.25 125.00

COVERED (JUNE 21-23 15:00UTC) 3 DAYS
102.00 mm DUMAGUETE/NEGROS IL 9.30 123.30
102.00 mm GUIUAN/SAMAR ISLAND 11.03 125.73
104.00 mm SURIGAO/MINDANAO IL 9.80 125.50
105.00 mm ILOILO/PANAY ISLAND 10.70 122.57
106.00 mm MACATAN 12.37 123.62
120.00 mm CALBAYOG/SAMAR ISL 12.07 124.55
121.00 mm KALIBO/PANAY ISLAND 11.68 122.38
121.00 mm TAGBILARAN/BOHOL IL 9.60 123.85
131.00 mm MACTAN INTL(CIV/AF) 10.30 123.97
152.00 mm ROXAS/PANAY ISLAND 11.58 122.75
165.00 mm BACOLOD/NEGROS ISL 10.65 122.93
196.00 mm TACLOBAN/LEYTE ISL 11.25 125.00
199.00 mm MAASIN/LEYTE ISLAND 10.13 124.83

COVERED (JUNE 17-23 15:00UTC) 7 DAYS
200.20 mm MAASIN/LEYTE ISLAND 10.13 124.83
200.20 mm TACLOBAN/LEYTE ISL 11.25 125.00
278.32 mm APARRI/LUZON ISLAND 18.37 121.63

04W/NANGKA/FERIA THREATHENS SOUTHERN TAGALOG AND METRO MANILA, LASHED VISAYAS AND NORTHERN MINDANAO

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 1A[15:30UTC] JUNE 24, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

04W/NANGKA/FERIA WIND

04W/NANGKA/FERIA VORTICES

04W/NANGKA/FERIA UPPER DIVERGENCE

04W/NANGKA/FERIA SHEAR

04W/NANGKA/FERIA PRESSURE

04W/NANGKA/FERIA CONVECTION

AS OF 1A

MINIMAL STORM 04W/NANGKA/FERIA

LOCATION: 11.8N, 124.1E

WINDSPEED: 35-45KT/64-83KPH

SLP: 1000.1MB

MOVEMENT: NORTHNORTHWEST AT 10KT/19KPH

VORTICES: VERY HIGH

EYE TEMP: 1.0C

SHEAR: 25KT

UPPER DIVERGENCE: FAIR AT 15KT

FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: STRONG STORM (40-50KT)]

04w/nangka/feria is under the steering effect of SW quandrant of High pressure area. Frontal system over China expected to weakens and re-orient this ridge allowing a more NNW tract after 12hrs and begins its slow tract.

COVERED (JUNE 22-23 12:00UTC) 1 DAY
35.00 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 13.42 121.18
36.00 mm DIPOLOG/MINDANAO IL 8.60 123.35
39.00 mm TAYABAS 14.03 121.58
41.00 mm CAGAYAN DE ORO 8.48 124.63
46.00 mm ROMBLON/TABLAS ISL 12.58 122.27
50.00 mm CATARMAN/SAMAR ISL 12.48 124.63
51.00 mm ILOILO/PANAY ISLAND 10.70 122.57
52.00 mm CATANDUANES RADAR 13.98 124.32
52.00 mm MACATAN 12.37 123.62
57.00 mm LUMBIA AIRPORT 8.43 124.28
60.00 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
61.00 mm KALIBO/PANAY ISLAND 11.68 122.38
62.00 mm DUMAGUETE/NEGROS IL 9.30 123.30
64.00 mm OLONGAPO 14.80 120.27
67.00 mm SAN FRANCISCO 13.37 122.52
73.00 mm BUTUAN/MINDANAO ISL 8.93 125.52
74.00 mm TAGBILARAN/BOHOL IL 9.60 123.85
77.00 mm CATBALOGAN/SAMAR IL 11.78 124.88
78.00 mm BORONGAN/SAMAR ISL 11.62 125.43
78.00 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
78.00 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
78.00 mm ROXAS/PANAY ISLAND 11.58 122.75
90.00 mm MACTAN INTL(CIV/AF) 10.30 123.97
91.00 mm CALBAYOG/SAMAR ISL 12.07 124.55
92.00 mm GUIUAN/SAMAR ISLAND 11.03 125.73
100.00 mm SURIGAO/MINDANAO IL 9.80 125.50
116.00 mm BACOLOD/NEGROS ISL 10.65 122.93
171.00 mm TACLOBAN/LEYTE ISL 11.25 125.00
173.00 mm MAASIN/LEYTE ISLAND 10.13 124.83
COVERED (JUNE 21-23 12:00UTC) 3 DAYS
102.00 mm GUIUAN/SAMAR ISLAND 11.03 125.73
102.00 mm SURIGAO/MINDANAO IL 9.80 125.50
118.00 mm BACOLOD/NEGROS ISL 10.65 122.93
173.00 mm MAASIN/LEYTE ISLAND 10.13 124.83
174.00 mm TACLOBAN/LEYTE ISL 11.25 125.00

COVERED (JUNE 17-23 12:00UTC) 7 DAYS
278.32 mm APARRI/LUZON ISLAND 18.37 121.63

03W/LINFA WEAKENING, 92W INVEST AND 94W INVEST ORGANIZING, LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN 24-72HRS

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 3P[05:30UTC] JUNE 21, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

WIND
VORTICES


UPPER DIVERGENCE

SHEAR

RAINRATE

PRESSURE

94W INVEST WIND

92W INVEST WIND

03W/LINFA WIND

94W

92W

03W/LINFA



AS OF 3P
SEVERE STORM 03W/LINFA
LOCATION: 23.8N, 118.6E
WINDSPEED: 60-75KT/111-139KPH
SLP: 982.6MB
MOVEMENT: NORTHNORTHEAST AT 8KT/15KPH
VORTICES: EXTREME
EYE TEMP: 3.0C SHEAR: 25KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: EXCELLENT AT 40KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: WEAKENING (45-55KT)

WARNING 92W INVEST
LOCATION: 10.4N, 138.5E
WINDSPEED: 10-15KT/19-28KPH
SLP: 1009.8MB
MOVEMENT: WESTNORTHWEST AT 10KT/19KPH
VORTICES: MODERATE
EYE TEMP: 0.0C
SHEAR: 7.5KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: POOR AT 5KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: WEAKENING (10KT)

WARNING 94W INVEST
LOCATION: 4.7N, 162.2E
WINDSPEED: 10-15KT/19-28KPH
SLP: 1007.8MB
MOVEMENT: WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY
VORTICES: LOW
EYE TEMP: 0.0C
SHEAR: 15KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: GOOD AT 20KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: WARNING (10-15KT)

COVERED (JUNE 19-20 18:00UTC) 1 DAY
45.00 mm APARRI RADAR 18.37 121.62
106.00 mm APARRI/LUZON ISLAND 18.37 121.63

COVERED (JUNE 18-20 18:00UTC) 3 DAYS
112.00 mm IBA/LUZON ISLAND 15.33 119.97
127.00 mm NAULA POINT/LUZON 15.70 119.97
139.00 mm APARRI/LUZON ISLAND 18.37 121.63

COVERED (JUNE 14-20 18:00UTC) 7 DAYS
200.20 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97
224.61 mm NAULA POINT/LUZON 15.70 119.97
312.50 mm APARRI/LUZON ISLAND 18.37 121.63

03W/FERIA INTENSIFIED INTO STRONG STORM MOVING SLOWLY WEST, 90W DEVELOPING

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 3A[18:30UTC] JUNE 18, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

03W WIND

03W VORTICES

03W CONVECTION
UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHEAR
RAIN ANALYSIS

90W WIND

90W CONVECTION


AS OF 3A

MINIMAL STORM 03W/FERIA

LOCATION: 18.2N, 116.3E (APPROXIMATELY 420KM WEST OF ILOCOS NORTE)
WINDSPEED: 35-45KT/65-83KPH
SLP: 1003.7MB
MOVEMENT: WEST SLOWLY
VORTICES: HIGH
EYE TEMP: 1.0C
SHEAR: 15KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: POOR AT 7.5KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: STRONG STORM (40-50KT)

SEVERE ALERT 90W
LOCATION: 18.0N, 124.8E
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT/37-46KPH
SLP: 1006.6MB
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
VORTICES: MODERATE
EYE TEMP: 1.0C
SHEAR: 15KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: GOOD AT 20KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: SEVERE ALERT (20-25KT)

MINIMAL DEPRESSION 98W WEAKENS, 99W STRUGGLE

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 12P[3:30UTC] JUNE 15, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

TRACT

WINDSHEAR

WIND ANALYSIS

VORTICES

UPPER DIVERGENCE

RAINRATE

RAIN ANALYSIS

98W AND 99W INVEST WIND

98W AND 99W INVEST CONVECTION


AS OF 12P

SEVERE ALERT 98W/RE-FERIA

LOCATION: 14.5N, 125.0E (APPROXIMATELY 320KM EAST OF NORTHERN QUEZON)
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT/37-46KPH
SLP: 1006.4MB
MOVEMENT: WNW AT 5KT/9KPH
VORTICES: HIGH
EYE TEMP: 1.0C
SHEAR: 12.5KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: WEAK AT 10KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: SEVERE ALERT (20-30KT)

WARNING 99W

LOCATION: 10.6N, 131.8E (APPROXIMATELY 660KM EAST OF EASTERN VISAYAS)
WINDSPEED: 15-20KT/28-37KPH
SLP: 1007.7MB
MOVEMENT: WNW AT 5KT/9KPH
VORTICES: LOW
EYE TEMP: 0.5C
SHEAR: 25KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: WEAK AT 10KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: ALERT (15-20KT)

Minimal depression 98W downgraded to severe alert as it weakens due to lack of outflows and sudden weakness of upper level divergence.

COVERED (JUNE 13-14 18:00UTC) 1 DAY
37.00 mm MACTAN INTL(CIV/AF) 10.30 123.97
40.00 mm MANILA/LUZON ISLAND 14.58 120.98
40.00 mm NINOY AQUINO INTL 14.52 121.00
40.00 mm SANGLEY POINT AB 14.50 120.92
43.00 mm PUERTO PRINCESA AFB 9.75 118.73
53.00 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35
85.00 mm CLARK AFB/LUZON ISL 15.18 120.55
85.00 mm CROW VALLEY GNRY RG 15.32 120.38
91.00 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90
112.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97

COVERED (JUNE 12-14 18:00UTC) 3 DAYS
119.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97
124.00 mm CLARK AFB/LUZON ISL 15.18 120.55
124.00 mm CROW VALLEY GNRY RG 15.32 120.38

COVERED (JUNE 8-14 18:00UTC) 7 DAYS
NO 200MM ABOVE RAINFALL