PAGASA FORECAST MODEL (WRF MODEL)

PAGASA FORECAST PHILIPPINES

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PAGASA FORECAST METRO MANILA

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NCMRWF FORECAST MODEL

NCMRWF FORECAST MODEL

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NCMRWF FORECAST MODEL

THAI MARINE MET FORECAST

THAI MARINE METEOROLOGICAL CENTER

NEXT 12HRS	NEXT 24HRS
NEXT 36HRS	NEXT 48HRS

GFS FORECAST MODEL

NCEP GFS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

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GFS LINK

MAJORITY FORECAST MODELS SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

As of 00HRS, almost majority of the model forecast shows a possible tropical cyclone formation expected along Philippine sea this coming weeks wherein Either side of Luzon and Eastern Visayas is a primary concern...


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2 TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 120 HRS

RELATIVE VORTICITY

NOGAPS 120 HRS FORECASTS

Tropical cyclone formations are expected within the next 5 days.
First tropical cyclone is possible on the next 48hrs over se portion of Guam.
Latest vorticity (sept 26) shows active vortex developing over SE of Guam.
Next 3-5 days shows 3 more likely to develop with one stalling over east of Philippines.
Overall, atleast 2 tropical cyclone expected within the next 5 days.




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SLOWLY PRE-MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES

Monsoon trough over Mindanao

Dry air remains over Western Pacific

Deep frontal system over Extreme northern Luzon

Overall, Mindanao and Extreme northern Luzon will have scattered thunderstorms

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may 5 forecast

Frontal system still over Luzon

Intensifying monsoon trough (ITCZ) over mindanao

increasing moisture over Mindanao and another approacing

Overall, thunderstorm activity will be more frequent over Mindanao and eastern Visayas.

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FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN OVER LUZON

• Latest imagery shows frontal system now over Luzon as the remnant of 90w merge with the said system.
• Monsoon trough still weak
• Overall, possible moderate thunderstorm activity over much areas of luzon.

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EXPECT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN VISAYAS NEXT WEEK

ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
NOV 15 2009

Based on latest forecast over western pacific shows a tropical cyclone expected to develop off near east of Northern mindanao which is likely to lash eastern Visayas. This forecast will be watch within the next 3 days if this forecast will be inevitable. (This forecast are subject to changes and only applicable if 3 straight forecast remain unchangeable.)

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