NEUTRAL CONDITION WITHIN COMING MONTHS

Some warming of SST were observed most of January following some cooling trends last December. Current SST in the far-eastern Pacific are now back on neutral stage as warming has also been obseved in the Western half of the basin during January. Trade winds accross much of the eastern and central equatorial pacific and the SOI, which though weaker, remain firmly positive.Most model outlooks and the eastward propagation of warm sub-surface water from the western equatorial pacific, suggest that the cooler surface condition in the Pacific may not persist beyond summer 2009. Likely scenario is for the central and eastern pacific to warm further over the coming months and to remain neutral.

Relaxing weather expected within the weekend

People in the Phillipines expected enjoy the weather this coming weekend as a more relaxed weather condition expected within this coming weekend as no major weather disturbances nor other major weather system except over cold front over Luzon might bring massive amount of rainfall like what happens for the past 2 weeks over Mindanao as it was struck by series of flashfloods and landslide that resulted over death (CLICK IMAGE AT LEFT).

However, lower shears and fair upper divergence expected over Mindanao to Visayas that might cause some formation of scattered L3-4 convection over the weekends but this may be not likely to persist long enough as seen on latest vortices imagery which indicates some more stable air over the area.

What causes floodings over Mindanao

Flooding over Southern Philippines resulted to more deaths and injuries including homeless families after their towns were washed away by the ranging waters from denuded mountains. Actually, what causes this numerous flooding.

From my last post regarding with this event (CLICK URL: http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2009/01/wetter-first-2-weeks-of-month_13.html) rain somewhat persisted and eventually heavier than expected resulted by multiple large deep convections associated by on-off active monsoon trough which spawned some development of tropical disturbances over the area. As seen on latest 1 week imagery seen above (CLICK URL: http://lake.nascom.nasa.gov/daac-bin/Giovanni/tovas/Giovanni_cgi.pl?west=117&north=21&east=128&south=5&params=0%7C3B41RT&plot_type=Area+Plot&byr=2009&bmo=01&bdy=13&bhr=00&eyr=2009&emo=01&edy=19&ehr=00&begin_date=2006%2F01%2F01%2F00&end_date=2009%2F01%2F20%2F09&cbar=cdyn&cmin=&cmax=&yaxis=ydyn&ymin=&ymax=&yint=&ascres=0.25x0.25&global_cfg=tovas.global.cfg.pl&instance_id=realtime&prod_id=3B41RT&action=Generate+Plot), shows rainfall totalled to up to 700mm/hr (100mm/day) mostly eastern part of mindanao. Level 5-7 convection persists over the area indicating moderate to blinding rains fall over the area.

This convections that developed over the area intensified as cold surge air meets a warmer airmass that travels from 0-10N latitude. moderate to strong vortices including low vertical wind shear and warm SST somehow help this convections to sustained its intensity that alas send strong rain while colder weather over Luzon, Some disturbances that developed over the area evenly intensifies the Northeast monsoon and drives some moisture to penetrate over the area. Results, heavy rains accross Mindanao and Eastern Visayas.

As cold front and northeast monsoon vanishing, convections also reduced and as of the moment, clearing the area.

More improved weather condition expected over the area within this week but low shear somehow might influence some convections to deepens.

Tropical disturbance warning Noname off Southeastern Mindanao

Newly tropical disturbance unnamed developed near Southeastern part of Mindanao that might brings more rain over the area. As of 6:30a, it was spotted at 8.0N, 130.0E or approximately 385km east of Davao Oriental with SLP of 1008mb and max windspeed of 15kts.

Latest vortices indicates a sustained High velocity and still increasing over the area Wind shear remains to be at moderate with 10kts upper divergence.

Very deep level 7 convection are over the area supported mainly by good TPW and warm SST and good OHC over the area. Moisture from Northeast monsoon fuels its convection to maintain at Level 7 for the past 6hrs indicating, warmer temperature over LLCC will sustained over the area within the next 6-12hrs. 11mm/hr rain rate are over the area and could possibly higher within the next few hours.

The system currently under the steering influence of Ridge of High pressure over Northeast and Northwest with cold front over its Northeast. It is currently moving WNW at 10kts/18.5kph.

For the next 12hrs will be critical on to whether this system will intensify into alert/severe tropical disturbance as fair upper divergence still over the area and pole ward outflow still less for the moment or it could remain as warning. Somehow, rain soaked area of Mindanao once more expected to have more heavy rains as this system approaches the area.

Exciting astronomical year for philippines

Yes indeed, this year will be exciting as 3 major event, an annular partial eclipse, 20-80% total solar eclipse and partial lunar eclipse will be visible for our country.

On January 26, Annular eclipse which is more visible over IndianOcean, Western Indonesia, Some part of Philippines particularly Palawan and Western Mindanao will witness 60-80% partial but shorter in duration at 9:30-10:00 Universal time. (CLICK HERE TO SEE PATH: http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot2001/SE2009Jan26A.GIF).

On July 9, Total Solar Eclipse which will be visible over East Asia, Southeast Asia, Pacific Islands. 20-80% accross the philippines will see its partially eclipse at 12:00-01:30 Universal time (CLICK HERE TO SEE PATH: http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot2001/SE2009Jul22T.GIF).

And Lastly, the partial Lunar Eclipse which will be visible on new Years eve (December 31) at Africa, India, Asia including Philippines (Click here: http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEplot/LEplot2001/LE2009Dec31P.GIF).

For more information you may visit this site, http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/OH/OH2009.html#2009Jan26A.

Wetter first 2 weeks of the month

Philippines suffer another devastating flashfloods and landslide for the past few days as rain continues to persist for the past 2 weeks. Based on TOVAS imagery seen at the left, almost 2000mm rain fall fell most part of eastern side of Mindanao and almost most part of the country received much rain probably higher than average. In metromanila alone, 115mm of rain fell for the 1st 2 weeks of the month (CLICK HERE TO SEE THE IMAGERY: http://lake.nascom.nasa.gov/daac-bin/Giovanni/tovas/Giovanni_cgi.pl?west=120.8&north=14.7&east=121.2&south=14.3&params=0%7C3B41RT&plot_type=Area+Plot&byr=2009&bmo=01&bdy=1&bhr=00&eyr=2009&emo=01&edy=13&ehr=15&begin_date=2006%2F01%2F01%2F00&end_date=2009%2F01%2F13%2F15&cbar=cdyn&cmin=&cmax=&yaxis=ydyn&ymin=&ymax=&yint=&ascres=0.25x0.25&global_cfg=tovas.global.cfg.pl&instance_id=realtime&prod_id=3B41RT&action=Generate+Plot). Bicol region particularly catanduanes receives almost 650mm of rain (CLICK HERE TO SEE THE IMAGERY: Luzon imagery, http://lake.nascom.nasa.gov/daac-bin/Giovanni/tovas/Giovanni_cgi.pl?west=119&north=21&east=124.5&south=12&params=0%7C3B41RT&plot_type=Area+Plot&byr=2009&bmo=01&bdy=1&bhr=00&eyr=2009&emo=01&edy=13&ehr=15&begin_date=2006%2F01%2F01%2F00&end_date=2009%2F01%2F13%2F15&cbar=cdyn&cmin=&cmax=&yaxis=ydyn&ymin=&ymax=&yint=&ascres=0.25x0.25&global_cfg=tovas.global.cfg.pl&instance_id=realtime&prod_id=3B41RT&action=Generate+Plot CLOSE UP: http://lake.nascom.nasa.gov/daac-bin/Giovanni/tovas/Giovanni_cgi.pl?west=123&north=15&east=124.5&south=13&params=0%7C3B41RT&plot_type=Area+Plot&byr=2009&bmo=01&bdy=1&bhr=00&eyr=2009&emo=01&edy=13&ehr=15&begin_date=2006%2F01%2F01%2F00&end_date=2009%2F01%2F13%2F15&cbar=cdyn&cmin=&cmax=&yaxis=ydyn&ymin=&ymax=&yint=&ascres=0.25x0.25&global_cfg=tovas.global.cfg.pl&instance_id=realtime&prod_id=3B41RT&action=Generate+Plot). Eastern Visayas which suffers flashfloods and landslide for the past weeks almost double its amount to 1600mm range rainfall for 2 weeks alone (CLICK HERE TO SEE THE IMAGERY: Visayas, http://lake.nascom.nasa.gov/daac-bin/Giovanni/tovas/Giovanni_cgi.pl?west=117&north=14&east=126.5&south=9&params=0%7C3B41RT&plot_type=Area+Plot&byr=2009&bmo=01&bdy=1&bhr=00&eyr=2009&emo=01&edy=13&ehr=15&begin_date=2006%2F01%2F01%2F00&end_date=2009%2F01%2F13%2F15&cbar=cdyn&cmin=&cmax=&yaxis=ydyn&ymin=&ymax=&yint=&ascres=0.25x0.25&global_cfg=tovas.global.cfg.pl&instance_id=realtime&prod_id=3B41RT&action=Generate+Plot CLOSEST POINT: http://lake.nascom.nasa.gov/daac-bin/Giovanni/tovas/Giovanni_cgi.pl?west=124&north=13&east=126.5&south=10&params=0%7C3B41RT&plot_type=Area+Plot&byr=2009&bmo=01&bdy=1&bhr=00&eyr=2009&emo=01&edy=13&ehr=15&begin_date=2006%2F01%2F01%2F00&end_date=2009%2F01%2F13%2F15&cbar=cdyn&cmin=&cmax=&yaxis=ydyn&ymin=&ymax=&yint=&ascres=0.25x0.25&global_cfg=tovas.global.cfg.pl&instance_id=realtime&prod_id=3B41RT&action=Generate+Plot). numerous report of mudslide and flashfloods reported over this region. Mindanao, the hardest hit of this large amount of rainfall that resulted to death of 1 in cagayan de oro city received tremendous ranging to 200mm minimum and 2000mm maximum rainfall over the area (CLICK HERE TO SEE THE IMAGERY, http://lake.nascom.nasa.gov/daac-bin/Giovanni/tovas/Giovanni_cgi.pl?west=119&north=11&east=127&south=5&params=0%7C3B41RT&plot_type=Area+Plot&byr=2009&bmo=01&bdy=1&bhr=00&eyr=2009&emo=01&edy=13&ehr=15&begin_date=2006%2F01%2F01%2F00&end_date=2009%2F01%2F13%2F15&cbar=cdyn&cmin=&cmax=&yaxis=ydyn&ymin=&ymax=&yint=&ascres=0.25x0.25&global_cfg=tovas.global.cfg.pl&instance_id=realtime&prod_id=3B41RT&action=Generate+Plot CLOSEST, http://lake.nascom.nasa.gov/daac-bin/Giovanni/tovas/Giovanni_cgi.pl?west=125.5&north=10.5&east=127&south=9&params=0%7C3B41RT&plot_type=Area+Plot&byr=2009&bmo=01&bdy=1&bhr=00&eyr=2009&emo=01&edy=13&ehr=15&begin_date=2006%2F01%2F01%2F00&end_date=2009%2F01%2F13%2F15&cbar=cdyn&cmin=&cmax=&yaxis=ydyn&ymin=&ymax=&yint=&ascres=0.25x0.25&global_cfg=tovas.global.cfg.pl&instance_id=realtime&prod_id=3B41RT&action=Generate+Plot).

This large amount of rainfall were attributed to ongoing effect of La-Nina phenomenon which induced series of disturbances such as minimal depression auring and newly formed active 92W which spawned by active monsoon trough. Cold surge still persist for the past 2 weeks as cold front and northeast monsoon peaks this month and expected to persist until february this year.

Newly formed 92W

Newly formed 92W spotted east of Mindanao. As of 6:30a, January 14, 2008, it was spotted at 10.2N, 129.8E or at approximately 470km east of Dinagat with SLP of 1010mb and max windspeed of 15kts. It is moving slowly Westward.

Latest vortices reveal a high small vortices near east coast of Mindanao with convection leveling high and scattered at 5-7 indicating 92W showing some sign of intensification.

Upper divergence indicates good over the area with fair pole ward outflow. Warm SST and good OHC near the area fuel more for this system to intensify.

The system currently steered by High over NE and pole ward channel also from the NE with strong 34kts NE wind over northern quandrant which cause some slow westward tract.

The probability it may intensify is possible but as a depression still slim within 24hrs.

La nina's return

Recent atmospheric and oceanic condition over eastern equatorial pacific (based on weekly ENSO prediction by NOAA) reflects to another la nina condition this year.
Based on SST anomalies shown above indicates further cooling process of Eastern equatorial pacific (kindly click for full viewing of image).
Images seen above shows cooler SST located between NINO 3,4 by -1.1 degree. (kindly click for full viewing of image). Upper-level (200-hPa) westerly wind anomalies continued over much of the equatorial Pacific. An anomalous cyclonic couplet is evident in the subtropics consistent with La Niña. For full report you may visit this site http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

AURING SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SAMAR

Weak depression Auring (based on JMA) weakens slowly but remains at 20kts wind. As of 7p, it was centered at 12.5N, 127.5E or at approximately 250km east of Northern Samar with SLP of 1007.5mb and winds of 20kts. It is moving under the steering influence of High over China to the west slowly. The primary steering influence over Auring is a building High which cut as expected the frontal system to the North which allow Auring to directly move back to the west.

Auring is forecast to weakens as weakening upper divergence, colder and drier air entrap to its circulation. However, convection remain to be at level 3-5 meaning moderate to at times heavy rains expected at rate of 12mm/hr (see images below) as shear remain low and warm SST and moderate OHC are over the area.

Possible stormy weather expected over Samar tomorrow as its remnant expected to affect the area.

Colder air expected to affect Luzon and Northern Visayas with possible rains over Visayas and Northern Mindanao as weakening Aurings and possibly its remnant moves to the area.

Minimal depression auring erratically moving

Minimal depression Auring continues to erratically moving Northward for the past 12hrs in response over steering effect of High over China and fast moving frontal system North. As of 8p, it was centered at 12.8N, 128.5E or at 495km east of Sorsogon with SLP of 1007.8mb and max windspeed of 22kts. It is currently moving NNE slowly.

Latest satellite imagery shows L7 convection persist over the area of LLC signifying deepening still existing over the area.

VORTICES: Shows 2 area of High vortices, one over Eastern Visayas and the other over near LLCC.

UPPER DIVERGENCE: Still fair at 20kts.

WIND SHEAR: Remain low at 5-10kts with strong over to the North





STEERING WIND: Shows High over China becoming a dominant steering influence over auring as it is building up.

WIND ANALYSES: shows closed wind over LLCC with 20kts over almost most of the circulation.

TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER: Remain high over the area with dry over north


RAIN RATE: 16mm/hr over the area

Auring expected to almost remain stationary within 6hrs due to competing effect of building high over China and the movement of fast frontal system over the North if it may break by the said high. The next 24 hrs will be critical to auring direction as 2 possible scenario expected, one will be a fast NE march in response over the said frontal system and the other will be a slower NE march and eventually back to more West to Southwestward in response over possible effect of the said High over China which will break the frontal system. Either of the two are likely depending over the said 2 competing influence over minimal depression auring.

Auring expected to survive based on its level of convection and remain as minimal depression before weakening as tropical disturbance alert within the next 24-48hrs.

WIND ANALYSES: strong winds still blowing over Bicol region and Extreme northern Luzon

PHIL. RAINFALL:

PHIL CONVECTION:

L0 (BLACK) = No clouds with some cloudy
L1 (GRAY) = Cloudy with some overcast
L2 (YELLOW) = Overcast with some drizzle
L3 (BLUE) = Drizzle with some Light Rain/shower
L4 (RED) = Light rain/shower with some Moderate Rain/shower
L5 (PINK) = Moderate Rain/shower with some Heavy rain/shower
L6 (GREEN) = Heavy with some Very Heavy shower
L7 (WHITE) = Very Heavy with some Blinding Rain

First tropical cyclone of 2009

99W intensified for the past 6hrs and now categorized both JMA and PAGASA as minimal depression. As of 7p, it was centered at 9.7N, 129.0E or at approximately 440km east of Leyte with SLP of 1007.2mb and wind speed of 20-25kts (37-46kph [23kts minimum {43kph}]).

Latest satellite images shows 99w’s convection slowly consolidating with closed circulation based on latest wind analyses. Upper level divergence improved to 20kts with pole ward outflow slowly developing over the area which will allow 99w to have some intensification for the past 6hrs. The system currenly under the influence of strong NE wind over North and Ridge over China

VORTICES

UPPER DIVERGENCE

WIND SHEAR

WIND ANALYSES

STEERING WIND

WIND ANALYSES

TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER

RAIN RATE

It is currently moving very slowly to the NNE. The system currently under the steering effect of 2 high over China and Japan and Frontal system currently over SE coast of China extending toward south China sea as it moves further equatorward. The current speed and direction auring primarily affected by this competing systems, however, 80% chances it moves more at pole ward tracts as the said frontal system will capture auring after 24hrs. The chances it may become a minimal storm is uncertain as of this point as colder air surrounds the area, but based on its level of convection, becoming a strong depression possible as plenty of moisture based on TPW and moderate OHC and warm SST supported its amount. Shear remain at low and upper divergence still good wind good pole ward outflow based on water vapour imagery.

up to 10mm/hr rainrate expected over Eastern Visayas and Mindanao.

Rain of up to 7mm/hr expected over the rest of the country mostly Eastern side.

L0 (BLACK) = No clouds with some cloudy

L1 (GRAY) = Cloudy with some overcast
L2 (YELLOW) = Overcast with some drizzle
L3 (BLUE) = Drizzle with some Light Rain/shower
L4 (RED) = Light rain/shower with some Moderate Rain/shower
L5 (PINK) = Moderate Rain/shower with some Heavy rain/shower
L6 (GREEN) = Heavy with some Very Heavy shower
L7 (WHITE) = Very Heavy with some Blinding Rain